Oversimplifies trends and ignores real-world disruptions. Can’t predict economic downturns, competitor actions and shifts in customer behavior on its own. Ignores randomness; every forecast will have ...

Paul Winters receives funding from the Gates Foundation. He is the Executive Director of AIM for Scale. Amir Jina receives funding from AIM for Scale. For farmers, every planting decision carries ...

In forecasting economic time series, statistical models often need to be complemented with a process to impose various constraints in a smooth manner. Systematically imposing constraints and retaining ...

At first glance, forecasting behavior might seem far-fetched—can we really predict how people will act? It's a fair question. But just as we once questioned whether we could reliably predict the ...

A new AI tool to predict the spread of infectious disease outperforms existing state-of-the-art forecasting methods. The tool, created with federal support by researchers at Johns Hopkins and Duke ...

Abstract: The weather prediction results are critical for wind power forecasting, even a minor deviation in wind speed prediction can result in significant power ...

A Microsoft model can make accurate 10-day forecasts quickly, an analysis found. And, it’s designed to predict more than weather. By Rebecca Dzombak Weather forecasters rely on models to help them ...

Age–period–cohort (APC) model outputs have been used extensively to produce forecasts of cancer incidence, identify emerging public health concerns, and quantify the impact of potential interventions.