Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to ...

For unequal probability sampling designs, design-based variance estimation is cumbersome because it requires second-order inclusion probabilities. For most fixed sample size probability ...

The problem of estimating the variance of the ratio estimator in sampling with probability proportional to aggregate size is investigated. The form of nonnegative unbiased variance estimators is found ...

New research uncovers why an increase in probability feels riskier than a decrease. The research falls under the realm of subjective probability, also known as likelihood or risk. While past research ...

Statisticians who study coincidences are fond of saying that ordinary people don’t know how to estimate the probabilities of coincidences. To illustrate our poor statistical thinking, statisticians ...

Basel II adopting banks estimate and validate long-run probability of default (LRPD) for each of their internal risk ratings. In this study, we examine alternative methodologies in estimating and ...

An international team is currently closely tracking the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4. The impact probability estimates for the year 2032 has been reduced from a peak of 3 percent to below 0.001 ...